Toxic political environmental characterizes Congress

As the nation heads into a presidential election year, one veteran presidential journalist characterizes Washington as a "politically toxic place" where neither party is willing to do anything that might result in helping the other side.

Tom De Frank, a best-selling author and political journalist has covered presidential politics from Lyndon Johnson to Barack Obama and was a keynote speaker at the Dairy Business Association's meeting in Madison, Nov. 30.

He decried the loss of bi-partisanship that was championed by the likes of Senator Bob Dole, President Gerald Ford and House Speaker Tip O'Neill. Today the mood in the Republican-dominated Congress is "screw the country we're not going to pass anything for Obama to run on," he said.

"It this keeps up we're going to be Greece in four years," he said.

President Barack Obama, is "very tall, very skinny and very smart," De Frank said. "He has a lot of candle power but that doesn't necessarily equate to a successful presidency."

The nation's first black president made history with his election but also "engenders a lot of loathing," said De Frank, adding that Obama is a "polarizing politician."

Obama is supposed to be a great orator, but he isn't, says De Frank. "In his last press conference the best sound bit came in the 51st minute. He's lost control of his message."



Re-election bid in trouble

Obama's re-election bid is "in serious trouble. It's fair to say he has the most daunting presidential environment to overcome of any president in my lifetime."

In a recent poll asking Americans if they feel the country is on the right or wrong track, 74 percent said they believe it's on the wrong track. "You cannot be elected with a wrong track number that high."

Obama has a disaffected Democratic base that feels he is "too soft" and not willing to take on the Republicans. De Frank said he believes that Obama misread the mandate that came with his election - that people wanted a more left-leaning government.

"People wanted him to be not-Bush and not-Cheney, but we have a center-right country."

Obama's health care reform law is a historic achievement, De Frank said, but many Americans hate it. The lingering economic downturn and unemployment rates also spell trouble for the president.

"No president has won an election with unemployment at 8 percent except FDR and he's no FDR," he said, referring to Franklin Delano Roosevelt who won four elections during the Great Depression and beyond. "This election is all about the economy. If the election were today he'd lose."

The veteran journalist noted that this election is still a very fluid one with Republican stars like Sarah Palin deciding to stay out of the race and other front-runners like Herman Cain "stumbling and bumbling" out of the way. He called Cain's campaign "the worst since Ross Perot."

Texas Governor Rick Perry, who De Frank said he knows personally, has also stumbled with poor debate performances and other missteps. He said he didn't think Perry would be able to recover from them.

Mitt Romney - a "grown-up" with "presidential hair" - has learned from his previous campaigns and is the preferred candidate of the GOP's elite.

Republican insiders tell De Frank that they will have to go with the candidate that has the best chance of beating Obama. One problem for Romney is the health care plan that was signed into law when he was governor of Massachusetts. "Republicans haven't forgotten that and it gives him the reputation of being a flip-flopper."

Former U.S House Speaker Newt Gingrich is "smart enough to be president. He's a big thinker and we're going to need one. He also has experience in the big leagues," says De Frank.

But his checkered marital background could be a problem with some conservatives.

Gingrich, says De Frank, "is smart and he wants to make sure you know it. He also has loose lips. He's from the 'ready, fire, aim' school of politics. It's in the nature of his DNA."

Some Republicans feel that Gingrich is too far to the right. "Elections are always won in the middle," he added. "Red meat is delicious in the primaries but it's indigestible in the general election."

Each candidate will try to make the election a referendum on the other guy. "If this is a referendum on Obama, he loses. His strategy has to be to make it a referendum on the other guy. He's doing the best he can in very difficult economic circumstances."

De Frank predicted that in next year's presidential campaign, Obama will have to "go dark" in his message - no more "hope and change."

"If we had a parliamentary system he'd already be back in Chicago."

Some elections come down to electability versus intensity or style versus substance, but the economy trumps all those other factors, he added.

And in politics, overnight is a lifetime, he said. A day before the 2000 election, George Bush thought he would have a landslide of Reaganesque proportions. "And it came down to 547 votes in Florida and one vote in the Supreme Court.

"Conventional wisdom is almost always wrong."